Friday, July 9, 2010

The Tuesday's Child Game

In this post I discussed the so-called Tuesday's Child problem in probability theory. The theory (with which I disagree) is that the probability of that the speaker has two boys is 13/27. I think the probability is actually 1/3. I've made a crude Java applet, the Tuesday's Child Game, to demonstrate the point.

Since the theory claims the odds are approximately even that the speaker has two boys, if I give you anything better than even odds, you are probabilistically ahead of the game. The applet pays off at 3:2 so,
according to the theory, you should win a lot of money.

If you are still interested in this problem, and can get $100 before going broke, let me know.

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